Bitcoin is closing July green, but August has been its weakest month historically. Meanwhile, volatility is close to its lowest levels since October 2025, suggesting a sharp move might be building. The direction may depend on potential Fed rate changes, which are widely expected to arrive in September.
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Top Crypto News
Crypto remains under pressure amid the Fed rate decision
Bitcoin moved below $64,000 this week amid the AI selloff, disappointment over the CLARITY Act, and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike. On Wednesday, the Fed left rates unchanged, but markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate hike in September. This could put pressure on Bitcoin in the coming months, as higher rates are typically fueling risk aversion.
While Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range, the Altcoin Season Index briefly reached its highest level since the crypto market peak in October 2025. UNI, AAVE, and SHIB were among the week’s best performers, each gaining more than 5%. However, if investors become more cautious due to Fed rate hikes, the market may see increased rotation out of altcoins into Bitcoin and stablecoin.
Other Top News
- The U.S. Senate reportedly shelved the Clarity Act as it proceeds with different bills, decreasing chances to pass the bill before August recess.
- STORJ token fell 20% as Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
- Ripple launched a platform giving institutions access to mint, redeem, and manage RLUSD stablecoin.
August is historically weak for Bitcoin. Could this time be different?
Bitcoin is on track to finish July in the green, but August has historically been one of its weakest months. Since 2013, 9 out of 13 times Bitcoin’s price decreased in August, with losses exceeding 9% during bear-dominated years such as 2026. As for now, the market is sitting in a waiting mode, with exchange inflows near 4-year lows and volatility close to its lowest level since October 2025.
This means the spring is coiling, and Bitcoin may be preparing for sharp moves in the near term. Whether those moves are bullish or bearish could depend on how the market handles potential selling pressure around $68,000, where many short-term holders are nearing breakeven. Around 85% of them are still underwater, meaning some may look to sell once they recover their losses.
Trading Lifehack
Don’t forget about the power of candlesticks patterns
When you’re unsure what the market might do next, take a closer look at the chart. Candlestick patterns, which are made up of just one to three candles, can offer early clues that momentum may be shifting. In the chart below, you’ll see three bearish examples: the Inverted Hammer (1), Bearish Engulfing (2), and Three Inside Out (3).
Keep in mind that these patterns are usually confirmed by the candle that follows, rather than the pattern alone. They also tend to be more reliable when combined with technical indicators that support a potential trend reversal or momentum shift. To add indicators and spot candlestick patterns, you can use CEX.IO’s trading terminal.
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