Bitcoin is hovering at the 200-week SMA — a level that has historically defined cycle bottoms. Daily liquidations just hit their lowest since July 2024, reflecting extreme calm. But liquidation clusters are quietly building at $62,000 and $66,000, suggesting the market might be preparing for a rapid move in either direction.
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Top Crypto News
Crypto is crabbing as U.S.-Iran talks hit a dead end
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran increased after Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was open under U.S. Navy control and demanded compensation from Iran for American casualties. Iran said it would not negotiate with Trump and would instead wait until his presidency ends. Talks have effectively stalled (again), adding more uncertainty to markets.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $65,000 after the news, but the broader crypto market remains in wait-and-see mode. Traders are looking for a stronger catalyst to push prices in either direction. The Altcoin Season Index also fell to a monthly low, although some altcoins continued to outperform Bitcoin on their own catalysts. CRV, PUMP, and MNT each temporarily gained more than 15% in a week.
Other Top News
- A small group of Bitcoin nodes that support the BIP-110 proposal broke away from the main network, creating a forked chain. But it stalled after producing two blocks.
- Vitalik Buterin puts privacy and quantum resistance front and center in Ethereum’s latest roadmap.
- US Senate delays CLARITY Act vote until September.
Bitcoin liquidations hit a record low. The calm before the storm?
Bitcoin’s derivatives market continues to show signs of cooling. Last week, average daily long liquidations fell to just $7.5 million, the lowest level since July 2024. Short liquidations were also relatively low at around $19 million per day. The decline partly reflects Bitcoin’s low volatility and recent range-bound price action.
However, the liquidation heatmap shows growing concentrations of liquidation clusters near $62,000 and $66,000. These levels could become important if Bitcoin breaks out of its current range. A move below $62,000 could trigger a wave of long liquidations and add to selling pressure, while a move above $66,000 could force short positions to close and potentially accelerate the upside move. With liquidations currently subdued, a break of either level could bring a noticeable increase in market volatility.
Trading Lifehack
Don’t forget to watch the 200-day SMA
Bitcoin’s price is hovering around the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits near $64,000. The indicator covers almost 4 years of price data, making it useful for tracking Bitcoin’s broader market cycles. Historically, the 200-week SMA has acted as a key line of defense, with several cycle bottoms forming around it.
However, Bitcoin failed to hold above the 200-week SMA in 2022, and the bear market continued for several more months. If BTC struggles to stay above $64,000 for an extended period, it could signal further weakness. On the other hand, holding above this level could support the case for a broader recovery. You can track the 200-week SMA and add it to your chart using CEX.IO’s trading terminal.
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